Handicapping tonight's Strong Mayor vote at Sacramento city council

It’s less than two hours until tonight’s City Counil debate of Sacramento Tomorrow's “Strong Mayor 4.0” proposal.

I was on Capital Public Radio’s Insight program with Beth Ruyak this morning discussing the issue, along with ST director David Nagler (separate segments; listen to his here).

And Cosmo Garvin, The Sacramento Bee editorial board and others have written extensively about the latest executive mayor pitch. So I won’t bore you with the details.

Let’s just get down to what’s gonna happen tonight.

I predict that SM 4.0 passes on a 5 – 4 vote, which means that council will kick it back to staff for tweaking. Specifically, they’re gonna explore Sacramento Tomorrow’s mayoral-tiebreaker pitch when it comes to deadlocked council votes. They’ll probably also want to straighten out whether SM 4.0 goes to the ballot in June or November (surely the latter).

Voting in favor will be the mayor, plus council members Ashby, Schenirer, Warren and Cohn (the latter not being a swing vote, again; he’ll vote how he did on Strong Mayor 3.0 in February 2012).

Council members McCarty, Fong, Pannell and Hansen will vote no. (Hansen could vote yes, though.)

Look for a full recap tomorrow morning on Page Burner.

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